AGP Executive Report

Crypto & Sanctions: Dubai regulator is investigating Shelbit, an unlicensed crypto exchange, over more than $4bn in transactions linked to Iran, with reports pointing to gambling-linked flows and alleged access to Iran’s payment infrastructure. Markets & Energy: Investors digested fresh Iran-Hormuz conditions as Trump said the US is “semi-negotiating” while Tehran demands sanctions relief, force withdrawal and asset unfreezing; oil and equities swung on the uncertainty. Banking & Payments: Nayax posted 2Q results with revenue up 28% to $123m and highlighted plans for embedded financial services, including an in-house issuing push and a US bank charter application. Corporate Finance: Bank of Commerce (Philippines) reported 1H profit up 13% on core lending and FX gains; Conduent flagged progress on its transformation and portfolio sales. Regional Finance & Development: World Bank approved a $100m grant to modernise Syria’s financial sector; Egypt signaled interest in industrial investment ties with Bangladesh. Security & Geopolitics: Saudi-Türkiye-Pakistan signed the Mecca mutual defence pact, while Gaza talks remain strained as Israel rejects Trump’s sequencing plan. Logistics & Trade: Jordan’s port performance (Aqaba turnaround ~0.6 days) supports its push to be a regional logistics hub amid supply-chain stress.

Qatar-Egypt Investment Push: Qatari Diar officially launched Phase 1 of the $29.7bn Alam Al Roum mixed-use coastal project on Egypt’s North Coast, with $3.5bn in direct cash investment and first phase handover targeted for 2030—positioning it as a tourism and urban-sustainability engine, not just real estate. Gaza Peace Roadmap Clash: Israel’s Netanyahu rejected Trump’s 15-point Gaza plan, saying troops won’t withdraw until Hamas is fully disarmed, while Egypt urged all parties to honor the roadmap and keep humanitarian access and stabilization force plans on track. Iran “Low-Key” Pressure Strategy: Trump signaled a wait-and-see approach toward Iran—“low keying it” with economic pressure rather than new strikes—while Iran reiterated strict conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, keeping energy markets tense. Hormuz Shipping Uncertainty: Reuters noted Hormuz traffic remains far below normal as Iran and Oman near a corridor arrangement but Tehran still demands sanctions relief, asset releases, and compensation. Arab AI Sovereignty Call: An Arab forum in Tangier backed an Arab-African AI model and proposed a sovereign center for investments, data and AI to support entrepreneurship and smarter cities. Kuwait Agriculture Investment Plan: Kuwait’s government flagged a sharp drop in agricultural investment and outlined reforms to attract capital and boost local know-how, including hydroponics and vertical farming. Korek Telecom Regulatory Fight (Iraq): Korek Telecom challenged Iraq’s communications regulator over a suspension order, arguing the commission lacks authority to cancel a prior settlement. Tourism Connectivity (Kuwait-Egypt): Jazeera Airways added flights to Egypt, bringing direct weekly services from Kuwait to 126 and expanding routes to Sharm El Sheikh, Alexandria, Sohag and Hurghada. Saudi Tourism Growth Signal: WTTC said Saudi travel and tourism is 14.1% of GDP and expects the region to be the fastest-growing tourism market through 2036.

Crypto & Sanctions: The US Treasury (OFAC) sanctioned Iran-linked digital asset exchanges and a wider front-company network, alleging crypto use to launder billions and support the IRGC—another sign of tighter enforcement across Middle East financial rails. Strait of Hormuz Economics: Iran says reopening the Strait of Hormuz hinges on US compensation and other conditions, keeping shipping uncertainty high even as Oman talks near a limited corridor arrangement. Energy Risk Premium: Yemen’s Houthis claimed a drone attack on Saudi Aramco’s Jazan refinery; Saudi said a fire was extinguished, but the incident underlines how defence pacts and Iran-US tensions keep energy infrastructure exposed. Regional Defence Deal: Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan signed the “Makkah” joint defence agreement with a NATO-style attack-on-all clause; officials stress it’s defensive, while analysts question how practical it is. Insurance M&A (Jordan): Jerusalem Insurance completed the Arabia Insurance Jordan merger, boosting paid-up capital and positioning the combined insurer for growth. Markets & Travel Demand: Airbnb shares jumped after it raised its full-year revenue outlook, citing resilient global travel demand despite Middle East conflict. Iraq Anti-Corruption Cash Recovery: Iraq’s “Dawn Crackdown” recovered about $371.6M in stolen assets, including cash and gold, as authorities continue detentions tied to major corruption cases.

Strait of Hormuz Shock to Oil Exports: Iraq says Hormuz closure has cut crude exports from ~3.4m bpd to 1.5–1.7m bpd, while it pushes alternative routes via Aqaba and the Basra–Fishkhabur pipeline under a BOT model. Iran-US Shipping Standoff: Iran’s Supreme National Security Council says the strait won’t reopen until the US lifts its blockade, ends sanctions, withdraws forces, unfreezes assets and pays war reparations—while the US says it has redirected 53 vessels since restarting the blockade. Iraq Airways Under Financial Scrutiny: Iraq’s transport minister orders investigations into alleged irregularities at state carrier Iraqi Airways, reviews partnerships, and revises employee incentives after prior suspensions tied to missing funds. Crypto Sanctions Pressure: US sanctions target Iran-linked crypto exchange houses and networks accused of laundering funds tied to the IRGC, adding to the region’s compliance squeeze. Saudi-Turkiye-Pakistan Pact Signals New Security Economics: Business groups and analysts frame the “Mecca” defense deal as a platform for joint training, tech transfers and investment—potentially reshaping regional risk and capital flows. Egypt Smart-City Push: Egypt highlights progress on smart cities and digital infrastructure, positioning new hubs as platforms for next-gen connectivity and operational control.

GCC Defense Shock: Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan signed the “Mecca” joint defence pact, with an attack on one treated as an attack on all—raising new strategic questions across the region and for India. Hormuz Pressure on Markets: Iran is betting on Strait of Hormuz leverage to force a US deal, while reports say an Iran-Oman framework could reshape shipping rules and energy pricing. Iraq Liquidity & Oil Route: The US Fed sent Iraq a $500m cash shipment to the Central Bank as Baghdad faces Hormuz-linked pressures; Iraq’s oil minister says output is 2.7m bpd and talks with Iran on exports via Hormuz are ongoing. West Bank Hardship: Palestinian Christians are increasingly considering leaving the West Bank as movement restrictions, checkpoints and settler attacks worsen; meanwhile Israel revoked entry permits for US Jewish activists supporting Palestinians. MSME Credit Drag: Philippines banks kept MSME lending at a small share (4.48% of portfolios), underscoring how Middle East conflict risk is spilling into credit. Digital Payments in Travel: Indonesia is trialling QRIS with Saudi Arabia and India as cross-border transactions in Bali surged, boosting fintech-enabled tourism spend. Crypto Sanctions: US measures targeted Iran-linked crypto exchanges and networks, tightening the financial rails for alleged IRGC-linked transfers. Property Pipeline: Dubai developer ANAX Developments outlined an AED 2bn+ pipeline and began construction on ELLE Residences Dubai Islands, aiming for Q4 2027 delivery.

US-Iran Crypto Crackdown: The US Treasury widened sanctions on Iran-linked crypto and “shadow banking” networks, targeting banks, exchange houses and facilitators tied to moving hundreds of millions of dollars for Tehran and the IRGC, including new designations involving Dubai-based exchanges and Iranian-linked entities. Sanctions Reach Beyond Crypto: Separate US actions also hit Iran’s banking system and currency-exchange web of shell companies, as Washington pushes to cut off oil-revenue access and sanctions evasion. Regional Security Deal: Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan signed the “Makkah Joint Defence Agreement,” framing it as collective deterrence amid Houthi attacks and the US-Iran standoff—though details on automatic mutual response remain unclear. Syria Digital Finance Push: The World Bank approved a $100m grant to modernise Syria’s financial sector, aiming for safer, faster, more transparent payments and broader digital retail usage. Energy Market Watch: Oil prices stayed choppy as investors weigh hopes and risks around Strait of Hormuz reopening, while Middle East tensions continue to steer shipping and crude flows. Market Mood: Pakistan’s PSX slipped as risk-off sentiment rose on Middle East escalation fears. Renewables in Syria: Saudi Al Harfi and Syria’s electricity company signed deals for 760 MW solar plus 1,077 MWh battery storage to stabilise the grid.

Gulf Security Pact: Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan signed the “Makkah Joint Defence Agreement,” with an Article-5-style clause treating an attack on one as an attack on all, as Iran-US tensions keep pressure on Gulf shipping and oil flows. Hormuz Shipping Rules: Markets reacted to reports that Iran’s draft Strait of Hormuz terms would ban US and Israeli vessels and require compensation/penalties for “hostile” ships, keeping uncertainty high for insurers and shipping operators. Iraq Fintech Push: Iraq’s central bank and CMC discussed a digital payments framework covering regulation, licensing for major tech platforms, influencer transaction monitoring and anti-financial-crime steps. Egypt AI in Insurance: Egypt’s Financial Regulatory Authority approved two more AI insurance projects for its sandbox, including Allianz Egypt’s AI voice/chatbot and EG InsurTech’s Ameen assistant. Energy Finance: Santander UK backed UK BESS projects by Econergy with debt financing tied to EDF revenue floors. Crypto Policy Watch: A report on why many states are pulling the plug on crypto ATMs highlights fraud risk and limited real use.

Hormuz Deal Watch: Iran says it’s in the final stage of drafting a Strait of Hormuz agreement with Oman, while the US keeps signaling routes may stay “unimpeded” — markets are reacting with oil swings and renewed focus on shipping risk. Energy Markets: Oil jumped on the latest Hormuz headlines, lifting global rates and pushing investors to rotate between safe havens and commodities; gold and silver saw profit-taking as yields and the dollar firmed. Regional Finance & Sanctions: The US Treasury scored another sanctions-evasion win with SeaLead Shipping’s liquidation, underscoring how Iran-linked shipping schemes keep getting targeted. Gulf Investment & Infrastructure: Tether’s Hadron is expanding Saudi tokenization efforts via partnerships, while Cyprus-Greece’s Great Sea Interconnector gains momentum with a French investor taking control. Wealth & Payments Moves: Nayax is pursuing a bank charter in the US as it shifts from payments into broader financial services. Macro/Markets: European stocks hit record highs on earnings and Iran-deal optimism, while West Bank healthcare is flagged as near collapse amid funding and access restrictions.

Digital Lending Launch (Saudi Arabia): GO Telecom Group is entering financial services with GO Money, rolling out a Temenos Core-powered digital lending platform for retail and micro-financing, including loan origination, servicing, collections, financial crime mitigation and Islamic finance. Payments Security (UAE/Egypt): Visa signed a definitive deal to acquire Israeli anti-fraud firm BioCatch for $2.4bn in cash, aiming to strengthen upstream, real-time fraud prevention for digital banking. Job-Market Platform (Saudi Arabia): Saudi Arabia launched a dedicated online portal for foreign workers to search roles by skills and apply for relocation with pay in Saudi riyals. Regional Trade/Shipping (Hormuz): Iran and Oman moved closer on a Strait of Hormuz reopening framework, with talks focused on route coordinates and conditions for safe passage—still subject to approvals and third-party concerns. Market Mood (Middle East-linked): Oil steadied around $80 as investors weighed Hormuz progress and ongoing Red Sea/Gulf supply risks, while equities tracked earnings and Middle East deal hopes. Humanitarian/Conflict Impact: Kuwait’s KFAED signed $5m in grants with UN OCHA for Syria and Afghanistan humanitarian funds, as West Bank raids and Gaza violations continue to draw regional condemnation.

Strait of Hormuz Watch: Oil markets stayed mixed as Iran said it reached an understanding with Oman on managing shipping through the Strait, while Trump said a deal could be imminent—traders are still cautious given past breakups. Digital Payments Regulation: Iraq’s Central Bank and the Communications and Media Commission discussed a digital payments framework, including licensing global platforms and setting rules for payments tied to social media influencers. Trade & Investment Push: Pakistan and Iran agreed to speed up their Free Trade Agreement and expand barter trade, with focus on border markets and customs/logistics to lift bilateral trade toward $10bn. Regional Security Blueprint: Germany and Finland proposed a “Middle East Helsinki Act” to build a lasting regional security dialogue as US-Iran de-escalation talks gather momentum. Syria Recovery: The IMF said Syria’s economic recovery is accelerating, but urged continued fiscal, banking and structural reforms to sustain growth. Saudi Investment Signals: Saudi Arabia’s PIF completed its $55bn acquisition of Electronic Arts, underlining continued Gulf capital appetite for US assets. LIV Golf Funding: LIV Golf secured a new lead investor after Saudi PIF’s exit, with players set to become majority equity holders—though star-player futures remain uncertain.

Middle East conflict hits payments: Global Payments cut its 2026 forecasts after the Middle East war disrupted travel and cross-border spending, with normalized constant-currency net revenue growth now guided at ~4%-5% (vs ~5% before). Energy-trading windfalls: Glencore said first-half energy trading earnings jumped to $2.66bn as Iran war-driven market dislocations boosted LNG, oil and shipping. Strait of Hormuz deal chatter moves markets: Reports of progress on US-Iran/Oman talks to reopen the Strait of Hormuz lifted risk appetite and pushed oil and equities higher, though a vessel strike offshore Oman added uncertainty. Iraq fiscal strain: Iraq’s public employees reportedly face delayed July salary payments as oil exports remain disrupted by Strait closures, with officials warning cashflow may force later payment cycles. Pakistan power privatisation push: PM Shehbaz Sharif ordered a faster, investor-focused plan to privatise power distribution companies (DISCOs), including hiring international experts and completing reforms within a month. Israel-Palestine flashpoints: Israeli forces carried out raids in the West Bank, including Qalandiya, with rights groups warning conditions are being made “unliveable.” Fintech/payments in the region: Absa and UKEF announced a $100m UKEF-backed financing programme for African businesses buying UK goods and services, using Absa’s client network to support trade.

Private Wealth & Appointments: Lombard Odier strengthens its Turkey push by hiring ex-UBS executive Tuncay Yilmaz as market head, while Ocorian appoints Souvik Sen as commercial director for Middle East private clients from its Dubai base. Trade & Payments: Pakistan and Iran agreed to lift bilateral trade to $10bn and fast-track an FTA, with talks also flagging joint border markets and electronic data interchange to ease logistics. Strait of Hormuz Watch: Iran is reportedly exploring a voluntary international fund (with Gulf and European backers) to help reopen Hormuz without mandatory tolls; meanwhile, US officials say progress continues via Oman-mediated talks, but no final deal is signed. Markets & Rates: Oil slid as de-escalation hopes grew, helping equities hit records; in parallel, Middle East-linked funding pressure is spilling into mortgages, with banks elsewhere raising fixed home loan rates. Syria Macro: The IMF says Syria’s recovery is accelerating and expects double-digit growth in 2026, alongside technical assistance to support reforms. Cyber & Critical Infrastructure: US water systems in at least 12 states were hit by suspected Iran-linked cyberattacks, prompting calls for stronger utility security. Energy Shipping Risk: Reports highlight thousands of sailors stranded around Hormuz as passage rates remain far below pre-war levels. Tech/AI Policy: Israel launched a national push for quantum computing and “Physical AI,” backed by government initiatives.

Qatar-US-Iran De-escalation Watch: Qatar confirmed a draft 14-point memorandum to restart US-Iran negotiations, with a ceasefire, potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and possible release of $24bn in frozen Iranian assets—while crypto markets already price in the shift. Oil & Markets: Oil rebounded as investors weighed uncertain talks; BP reported Q2 profit of $5.7bn (more than double), and Aramco’s Q2 net profit jumped 44% to $32.69bn, both tied to Iran-war-driven energy price spikes. Cybersecurity for Finance: IBM says the average Middle East data breach cost hit $8m in 2026, with AI-enabled attacks driving higher losses; Kaspersky also flagged a new OkoBot campaign targeting crypto users. Banking & Payments in the Region: Dukhan Bank went live on Kinexys’ blockchain deposit account network for 24/7 cross-border payments; ANZ lifted term deposit rates alongside mortgage changes. Energy Transition Deals: Egypt’s EETC signed a 407MW wind PPA with Alcazar for 2028 operations, while Jordan advanced a UAE-funded 25MW wind project.

Mortgage & rates: ANZ lifted fixed home loan rates up to 0.26% and term deposit rates up to 30 bps, citing higher wholesale funding costs tied to Middle East conflict uncertainty. Markets & oil: US stocks hit a record close as Iran-talk optimism eased crude and Treasury yields; Brent slid ~5–6% on diplomacy hopes, though Iran denied direct US talks and pointed to Oman-linked Strait of Hormuz discussions. Gold: Gold jumped on Trump’s Iran-deal claims, then cooled after Iran denied direct negotiations; traders now watch US labor data for the next move. Shipping & Hormuz risk: Strait of Hormuz reopening talks remain messy, with shipping still constrained and a reported incident near Oman highlighting ongoing operational risk. Banking/fintech adjacent: Emirates NBD agreed to buy HSBC Egypt’s retail banking business, adding momentum to Egypt’s banking consolidation. Energy logistics: Europe’s LNG supply outlook worsened as deliveries ran far below last year while Asia pulled more cargoes, raising regional power-security concerns. Legal/finance enforcement: Kuwait upheld 7-year sentences and KD 5m fines over fake chalet sales in Kuwait and Sharm El-Sheikh, underlining fraud crackdowns. Defense tech deal: XTEND and JFB Construction announced a $1.5bn all-stock merger to form XTEND AI Robotics, aiming to scale autonomous defense systems.

UAE Digital Payments: The UAE Ministry of Finance adopted “Aani” and “Jaywan” as new payment channels for federal service fees and fines, aiming to speed up the government payments journey and expand rollout across federal entities. UAE Startup Finance: Dubai Founders HQ and Mastercard (with Pemo) launched a founder finance solution for startups/SMEs, offering cashback on FX and ads, corporate cards, and automated spend management to cut admin time and improve cash flow. FinTech Funding & Compliance: Pakistan’s Abhi plans an IPO for Abhi Microfinance Bank, with proceeds to strengthen capital and expand gold-backed lending; it also targets a gold tokenization license for a crypto payment corridor between Pakistan and the Middle East. Cross-border Payments Metrics: OwlTing’s OwlPay Harbor reported July payment volume up 107.6% month-on-month, with enterprise clients rising to 79, as it scales regulated cross-border payouts. Cyber Risk Costs: IBM said the average data breach cost in the Middle East hit $8m in 2026, with AI-enabled malicious breaches rising. Macro & Markets (Middle East spillover): Oil slid after US-Iran strike pauses and Hormuz-route talks, lifting risk sentiment; meanwhile, UK and euro-area growth faces renewed pressure if Hormuz disruption drags on.

Diaspora Investing Push (Egypt): Egypt’s finance minister says a dedicated investment fund for Egyptians abroad will launch in 2027, with easier subscriptions, competitive returns, and a digital platform to simplify company setup and route expat capital into priority sectors. EV Demand Shift (Middle East & Africa): The IEA projects EVs will be 29% of global new car sales in 2026 as fuel-security fears and volatile oil prices keep demand resilient; Africa’s EV sales more than doubled in H1, with South Africa up fivefold and Egypt up more than threefold. Iraq Cash-Flow Stress (Banking/Policy): Delayed public-sector salaries are testing the Central Bank of Iraq’s limits as oil revenue falls; economists warn any stopgap borrowing could raise inflation if disruptions persist. Iraq Anti-Corruption Raids (Finance Integrity): Integrity teams raided a suspected currency-exchange network tied to a suspended Oil Ministry official, targeting records and linked individuals. US-Iran Strait of Hormuz Risk (Markets): Reports of a paused US Iran strike for a nuclear deal helped pull oil prices down 6% and eased market jitters, while analysts warn the Strait closure risk could still hit growth and inflation. Emirates NBD Expansion (Egypt Banking): Emirates NBD is set to buy HSBC Egypt’s retail banking operations, extending its Egypt footprint. Crypto Volatility (Hormuz + Trading): Crypto markets whipsawed on Iran-US tensions; Bitcoin rebounded after strike talk cooled, while meme-coin FARTCOIN jumped on speculative demand.