AGP Executive Report

Iran Deal Watch: Trump said US-Iran talks are in the “final stages” and he’s “in no hurry,” nudging markets—dollar slid from a six-week high, Treasury yields fell, and oil eased as investors priced a possible off-ramp. Sanctions & Shadow Finance: The US expanded OFAC Iran sanctions, adding 19 vessels tied to Iranian oil/petrochemical shipments and targeting an Iranian foreign-exchange firm plus related entities—another push to choke “shadow banking” routes. Macro Shock: The UN cut its 2026 global growth forecast to 2.5% and warned inflation could rise to 3.9%, citing energy disruptions and Hormuz strain. Market Mood: New Zealand’s NZX50 sank as risk appetite cooled; in India, bond yields eased on foreign buying after oil calmed. GCC Deal Momentum: Investors on the Asia-Gulf corridor say deal flow is shifting toward long-term industrial partnerships tied to Vision 2030 and energy transition. Diplomatic Fallout: Israel’s Ben-Gvir posted abuse footage of Gaza flotilla activists, triggering outrage from multiple governments. Energy Security: Pakistan is considering permanent strategic petroleum reserves as the conflict exposes supply-chain vulnerability.

Iran War / Markets: Oil and risk sentiment flickered again as Trump said the conflict could end “very quickly,” while JD Vance pointed to “good progress” in talks—yet the US also warned strikes could resume within days if no deal lands. Rates & FX Shock: The macro hangover is showing: US 30-year yields jumped to the highest since 2007, lifting the dollar and pressuring gold, while investors brace for higher-for-longer rates. Global Growth Cut: The UN trimmed 2026 growth to 2.5% and blamed Middle East energy shocks for renewed inflation pressure. Sanctions & Crypto/Finance: Washington expanded Iran sanctions targeting an exchange network and additional tankers, tightening the “shadow” channels that keep trade and currency flows moving. Middle East FinTech angle: Bahrain’s NBB leadership recognition and BIC’s C-suite reshuffle are local finance signals, but the week’s dominant theme for fintech is still payments, compliance, and liquidity risk under sanctions and oil-driven volatility.

G7 Finance in Paris: Ministers agreed the world needs action on trade imbalances and energy/food/fertiliser shocks, plus a “swift return” to safe Hormuz transit—but offered few concrete steps. Iran-US Flashpoint: Trump said he was “an hour away” from restarting strikes, with a limited window of days if talks fail, while Iran pushes a deal that includes sanctions relief and troop pullback. Markets React: Oil eased but stayed above $100 as investors weighed higher bond yields and renewed escalation risk; Europe held gains on de-escalation hopes. Sanctions & Finance: The US hit Iran-linked entities with fresh sanctions, while Iran’s stock exchange reopened after the longest shutdown. Regional Business Risk: UAE’s safe-haven image is under strain as attacks disrupt exports and tourism. Banking Expansion: Albania granted a preliminary operating license to Ziraat Bank’s unit, signaling continued GCC/Southeast Europe financial expansion.

Geopolitics-Driven Markets: Wall Street steadied after Trump said he paused a planned strike on Iran, easing oil and bond stress; Asia is mixed but Pakistan’s PSX rebounded and the ASX is set for a firmer open as investors wait for real progress on US-Iran talks. Hormuz Shock: The Strait of Hormuz remains the key risk—oil flows and shipping insurance fears keep volatility high, while Iran pushes new control measures and even Bitcoin-linked shipping insurance ideas. Pakistan-Saudi Military Link: Reuters reports Pakistan quietly deployed ~8,000 troops, JF-17 jets, drones and HQ-9 air defenses to Saudi Arabia under a mutual defense pact—while Pakistan also acts as a mediator. Banking & Jobs: Standard Chartered plans to cut 7,000+ roles over four years as it accelerates AI adoption. Payments & Stablecoins: Mastercard and Yellow Card team up to pilot stablecoin payments across remittances, B2B settlement and treasury in Nigeria and other EEMEA markets. UAE Business Resilience: A report says the UAE’s “haven” image is being tested by war-linked export and tourism hits, even as it adds infrastructure to reduce Hormuz reliance.

Sanctions & Settlements: The US Treasury says Adani Enterprises will pay $275m to settle alleged Iran-linked LPG sanctions violations, after earlier Adani moves to resolve US legal cases tied to corruption probes. Markets & Energy: Oil stays jumpy as Trump warns Iran the “clock is ticking,” while the IEA warns inventories are running dangerously low and G7 finance chiefs in Paris push for tighter Iran sanctions and Hormuz reopening. Strait of Hormuz Digital Pressure: Iran signals more leverage over undersea cables and shipping via new fees/licensing for cable operators, raising compliance risk for global tech and cloud firms. Cyber Enforcement: Interpol’s “Rameses” operation dismantled online fraud networks across 13 Arab nations, netting arrests and thousands of victims identified. AI in the Gulf: Dubai Holding teams with Microsoft to roll out enterprise AI across real estate, hospitality, retail and investments. FinTech/RegTech Adjacent: MHC + Odessa partner to modernize asset-finance customer communications at scale. Regional Finance Shock: World Bank approves $350m for Bangladesh energy security as Middle East disruptions strain LNG imports.

Geopolitics-Driven Markets: Oil and risk appetite took another hit as Trump warned Iran the “clock is ticking” and reports said he’ll convene a Situation Room meeting on possible military options—pushing Brent above $111 and dragging gold to a seven-week low while Asian stocks slid. Shipping & Supply Chain Pressure: Strait of Hormuz fears stayed front and center, with major carriers reportedly using partial land-bridge workarounds, but capacity is far lower and disruptions are still rippling through global trade. Corporate Cost Shock: A Reuters review put the Iran-war hit to global companies at at least $25bn, with 279 firms citing defensive moves like price hikes, production cuts, and dividend pauses. Egypt Real Economy Push: Egypt inaugurated the New Delta megaproject (about $15bn) to expand farmland, while finance headlines also included Egypt’s World Bank development financing and a large mortgage securitization deal. Payments & Retail Finance: QNB Qatar launched a Mastercard debit-card rewards draw campaign, betting on continued cashless spending growth in Qatar.

FX Pressure: India’s rupee slid to a record low above 96 per dollar as oil prices jump with the Iran-linked shock, pushing officials to prioritize stopping further depreciation via central bank support, tighter trading, and credit lines for oil importers. Iraq Revenue Crunch: Iraq’s new finance minister urged a push for non-oil revenue after Hormuz disruptions cut exports to about 10m barrels in April, forcing a scramble for alternative routes. Israel Growth Hit: Israel’s Q1 2026 GDP contracted 3.3% annualized as the Iran war weighed on spending and exports, though a rebound is expected if the ceasefire holds. G7 Watch: G7 finance chiefs meet in Paris with Strait of Hormuz reopening and inflation risks front and center. Egypt Housing Finance: GlobalCorp’s Ollin Mortgage Finance closed Egypt’s biggest mortgage securitization at EGP 3.31bn, signaling continued appetite for structured credit despite regional turmoil. Middle East Tensions: Trump again warned Iran “the clock is ticking,” while Iran accused the US and Israel of “manufacturing crises” to justify escalation.

Digital Sovereignty Push: Saudi Arabia is pitching “digital sovereignty” as an operational capability—governing data, running systems, and ensuring continuity—while touting top global readiness scores and accelerating startup investment. Iran–US Oil Shock: Trump says Iran has “an interest in reaching an agreement,” but the Strait of Hormuz remains the flashpoint as Iran moves to strengthen control via an insurance scheme that could route payments through crypto. Regional Finance Moves: Iraq’s Ali al-Zaidi has formally taken office and launched a Financial Stability Council focused on fiscal discipline, non-oil revenue, digitizing collections, and banking reforms. Market Pressure: India’s rupee hit a record low above 96 per dollar as oil-price pressure bites, with the RBI intervening to steady the currency. Israel–Palestine Fallout: Reports say Israel is blocking Red Cross access to Palestinian detainees and settlers are forcing Palestinians to abandon a West Bank village—raising humanitarian and political risk across the region.

Geopolitics Meets Markets: Israel-Lebanon talks extended a 45-day truce, but Israel hit Hezbollah in southern Lebanon hours after the deal, while Oil & FX Pressure: Brent jumped above $109 and the euro slid as Strait of Hormuz reopening fears and Iran-war inflation risks rattled bonds and stocks. IMF Warning: the IMF says the global outlook is shifting toward an “adverse” scenario if Iran-war disruptions persist. Iraq Energy Reality Check: Iraq’s new oil minister says exports via Hormuz fell to 10m barrels in April (from ~93m monthly pre-war), with tankers staying away on insurance; Baghdad is pushing pipeline routes via Turkey. Iraq Politics & Reform: PM Ali al-Zaidi pledges a “comprehensive” reform plan and a corruption crackdown after forming his cabinet. Security & Finance: an Iraqi man was charged in the US over alleged plans to attack Jewish sites, and Syria appointed Safwat Raslan as central bank governor. Fintech Signal: Dubai’s XYRA AI launched an AI accounting and compliance platform for UAE/GCC firms.

Markets Under Pressure: Global bonds and stocks slid again as investors priced in higher-for-longer rates and renewed Strait of Hormuz risk after Trump-Xi talks delivered “warm words, few wins” and Iran warned it has “no trust” in the US—oil jumped above $109/bbl and Europe’s Stoxx 600 logged weekly losses. Middle East Diplomacy: Lebanon extended its Israel ceasefire for 45 days while Iran signaled it’s open to talks only if Washington shows real seriousness; BRICS also failed to agree a joint statement over the Iran war. Fintech & Telecom: Vodacom pushed smartphone financing for prepaid users via small daily/weekly repayments—turning devices into a gateway for broader digital services. Saudi Tokenization Push: droppRWA secured $12.5bn in tokenization mandates to bring real estate assets on-chain, expanding beyond property into energy and manufacturing. Local Business Signals: VM Investments returned to profitability in Q1, citing stronger activity and cost discipline. Human Impact: Gaza’s digital workers kept coding from coworking spaces despite bombs, blackouts, and banking restrictions.

Geopolitics Hits Markets: Global stocks slid and bond yields jumped as investors priced in longer Iran-war inflation risk, with 30-year US Treasuries spiking near crisis-era levels and oil pushing toward ~$109/bbl. Ceasefire Watch: Israel and Lebanon extended their ceasefire by 45 days, with talks scheduled to restart in early June. Security & Finance: An Iraqi man was arrested in New York over alleged plans for at least 18 terror attacks across Europe and the US, tied to Iran-backed groups—raising compliance and risk flags for cross-border finance. Shipping/Strait of Hormuz: The US-China summit left Strait-of-Hormuz reopening unresolved, keeping energy and logistics uncertainty elevated. Middle East Funding Pressure: The US is reportedly considering redirecting withheld Palestinian tax money toward Trump’s Gaza plan, a move that could worsen the PA’s cash crunch. Regional Economy Shock: India’s oil firms hiked petrol and diesel for the first time since the war began, as Hormuz disruption tightens supply and squeezes households. ADB Support: The Asian Development Bank offered the Philippines a $1.75bn loan to manage Middle East-crisis fallout, signaling more aid flows where costs are landing hardest.

Microsoft Israel leadership exit: Microsoft’s Israel general manager Alon Haimovich is stepping down, but critics say it’s a “scapegoat” move after claims he oversaw Azure tools used by Israel’s military and intelligence; Microsoft previously said it found breaches tied to Gaza/West Bank surveillance and disabled parts of its setup. Egypt market pulse: Egypt’s IDSC showed mixed food moves on May 14—poultry and meat down, rice and flour slightly up, tomatoes sharply lower—while gold held steady and silver eased; EGX closed mixed. Egypt finance & policy: Egypt’s investment funds hit about $7.8B in Q1 2026, and the cabinet approved a new state family support fund to take over alimony and related payments. Iran-war spillovers: The conflict keeps pressuring regional banks with higher loan-loss provisions, while energy shocks ripple into consumer prices—India raised petrol/diesel for the first time in four years and lifted CNG in Delhi. Middle East payments: Syria’s banks reconnected to global card networks after Mastercard integration, signaling a rare fintech opening amid broader geopolitical shifts.

Strait-of-Hormuz shock hits markets again: Iran’s IRGC says “more than 30” ships, including some Chinese vessels, were allowed through after it agreed on “strait management protocols,” while oil prices dipped on the news and shipping incidents near the corridor keep risk elevated. US–China diplomacy: Trump and Xi agreed Iran “can never have a nuclear weapon” and Hormuz must stay open, but the talks also underline how fragile the energy lifeline remains. Iraq government reset: Iran reiterated Tehran–Baghdad ties as Iraq’s parliament approved Ali al-Zaidi’s government and he was sworn in with a partial cabinet, with interior and defence still unresolved. Regional finance watch: National Bank of Bahrain reported Q1 net profit of $54.6m, down 27%, citing geopolitical-driven provisioning and weaker treasury gains. Middle East fintech angle: the week’s biggest “payments” story is Iran’s internet reopening for a privileged few after months of blackout—an uneven boost for online workers rather than a full recovery.

Middle East Conflict Shockwaves: Saudi Arabia carried out direct strikes on Iran in late March 2026, the first known time Riyadh hit Iranian territory, as attacks and counterattacks reshaped oil and risk sentiment. Markets & Rates: Investors are bracing for higher US Treasury yields to “stay higher longer” as Fed chair Kevin Warsh faces inflation pressure tied to the Iran war and energy costs. GCC Capital Push: GIP, L’IMAD, ADNOC and Temasek are teaming up on a $30bn GCC infrastructure pipeline spanning energy, transport, digital, water and waste. Egypt Finance & Social Safety Nets: Egypt signed a $1.5bn loan deal with ITFC for food and energy security, while cabinet approved a new “Takaful Fund” to pay unpaid alimony/child support judgments. Digital Under Pressure: Iran’s internet blackout is easing only for some via a paid “Pro Internet” service, highlighting how war is reshaping access to banking and work. BRICS Recalibration: BRICS foreign ministers meet in India with Iran war, energy prices and local-currency trade on the agenda.

Iran-Hormuz standoff: Trump told reporters he “does not need” China’s help to end the Iran war, saying the US will “win it” and pointing to tighter Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz after deals with Iraq and Pakistan. Shipping & energy pressure: Iran is also working on a “protocol” to add financial terms to navigation safety, while markets keep pricing in supply risk and higher fuel costs. Inflation spillover: US CPI hit a three-year high (3.8% y/y) as Iran-war energy shocks ripple through prices, adding pressure on global rates. Banking & fintech wins: Kuwait’s NBK was named “Best Bank in Kuwait 2026,” while Egypt’s Thndr topped Financial Times Africa’s Fastest-Growing Companies list and UAE banks’ relief so far is far smaller than Covid-era support. Regional business moves: India firms are studying phosphate plants in Egypt, and Syria has opened a path for free-zone investors to import and display used cars. Credit watch: Fitch cut Bangladesh’s outlook to negative, citing Middle East-linked external financing and energy/remittance risks.

Egypt Retail Payments: Valu is partnering with Fawry to plug Valu payment and financing into the myfawry app, pushing more everyday financial services into Egypt’s digital rails. Egypt Asset Management: Egypt’s FRA says investment funds’ net asset value jumped to about EGP 410.6bn in Q1 2026, with 187 funds and 31.4bn certificates—money market and equity funds led. Egypt Prices Watch: IDSC data shows mixed daily moves across staples (rice up, sugar down) plus varied poultry, meat, fish, and dairy prices. GCC Finance: S&P expects slower Islamic finance growth this year (5%–10%) as Middle East conflict weighs on sukuk issuance and risk appetite. Macro Spillover: Markets remain jittery as the Iran war keeps oil and inflation pressure front and center; Thailand’s central bank says it’s not rushing rate hikes, citing easing supply-side inflation risks. Policy/Politics: JP Morgan’s Jamie Dimon warns he could pull a major UK investment if Labour turns “hostile to banks.”