AGP Executive Report

Macro Markets: Global shares jumped and oil slid after Trump said US-Iran strikes were called off and a peace deal could be signed soon, easing pressure on inflation and risk assets. Energy & Rates: European gas prices fell on deal hopes while the ECB raised rates to 2.25% as energy-driven inflation risks linger. World Bank: The World Bank cut 2026 global growth to 2.5%, warning Middle East conflict is the biggest drag via energy shocks, higher borrowing costs, and weaker developing-economy growth. Middle East Finance Aid: The ADB is mobilising $4bn for 15 crisis-hit nations, including $3bn for governments and $1bn via trade finance for fuel and food imports. Egypt Trade & Investment: Egypt extended six-month customs facilitation for transit shipments and discussed World Bank financing for agri-processing platforms and cold-chain/logistics upgrades. Egypt Capital Markets: EGX30 fell 0.85% in the latest session; foreign investors were net buyers while retail dominated most trades. Fintech/Payments Angle: Reuters flagged ongoing US-Iran talks over frozen funds, keeping liquidity and sanctions mechanics in focus for cross-border finance. Regional Business Links: Abu Dhabi Investment Forum opened in Shanghai, spotlighting asset management, private equity, sustainable finance and digital assets collaboration.

Rates & inflation shock: The ECB became the first major central bank to hike since 2023, lifting its deposit rate to 2.25% as Iran-war energy costs feed eurozone inflation. Global growth hit: The World Bank cut 2026 growth to 2.5% (and warned it could fall to 1.3% if disruptions worsen), while flagging higher borrowing costs and bigger stress for developing economies. US-Iran whiplash: Trump threatened to hit Iran “very hard” and seize Kharg Island, then later said strikes were cancelled after talks were “approved,” sending oil lower and stocks higher. Oil & shipping risk: With Hormuz disruption fears, shipping groups warned about about 20,000 sailors stranded in the Persian Gulf, while oil prices swung on each escalation headline. GCC finance: Dubai Islamic Bank priced a $1bn AT1 perpetual sukuk with $2.3bn demand. Pakistan macro: Pakistan’s finance minister said FY26 growth hit 3.7% and remittances should top $41bn. Egypt energy credibility: Egypt cleared $6.1bn in oil and gas arrears to foreign partners, aiming to boost investor confidence. Jordan investment push: Jordan’s energy and investment ministers met US counterparts to attract capital into oil, gas and strategic minerals.

Geopolitics Hits Markets: Fresh US-Iran strikes and renewed Strait of Hormuz closure fears pushed Gulf stocks lower (Saudi, Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Qatar all down) while oil stayed firm, keeping risk appetite muted. Central Banking & Inflation: The ECB is set to hike rates for the first time since 2023 as Iran-war energy shocks fan eurozone inflation. Aviation Cost Shock: IATA forecasts airline profits to nearly halve in 2026, with Middle East carriers expected to post losses as fuel costs surge. Gulf Finance & Wealth: Bank of Singapore appoints Lim Leong Guan to lead private banking for the Middle East, South Asia and international from July 1 in a push for UHNW growth. Lebanon Trade Signal: Saudi Arabia lifts a five-year ban on Lebanese imports, a potential boost for Beirut’s battered economy. MENA Clean Investment: A new report flags $642bn in potential clean-industry projects across MENA, with financing momentum accelerating. West Bank Pressure: Amnesty and Oxfam renew allegations of ethnic cleansing and rising West Bank deaths, adding reputational risk for regional finance. Dealmaking in the Region: JP Morgan says it has deployed $20bn into the Gulf since the Iran war began, pointing to large postwar infrastructure needs.

Water Infrastructure Finance: Morocco’s ONEE signed a €250m financing programme with the EBRD to modernise drinking-water production, with support in two tranches plus grants and technical assistance. Export Credit & Trade: UAE’s ECI and Australia’s EFA inked an MoU to boost export finance cooperation, aiming to unlock funding for energy, infrastructure and digital transformation. Clean Energy Lending: EIB backed a €200m package with Turkey’s Turk Eximbank and TKYB for clean energy, split into two €100m on-lending operations for SMEs. Nuclear Security Shock: The IAEA said a drone from Iraq hit an external generator facility at the UAE’s Barakah plant, damaging power supply to Unit 3 and triggering emergency cooling measures. Middle East Capital Flows: Shanghai hosted a Middle East investment matchmaking push, inviting sovereign wealth funds and investors to partner with Chinese firms. World Bank Deals: Mozambique signed five World Bank financing agreements totalling $450m across social protection, resilience, jobs skills, rural water safety and emergency response. Payments Leadership: Paysecure appointed Vanessa Mantzarioti as CFO to lead global finance as it scales across Europe and the UAE. Market Pressure from Iran War: US CPI rose to 4.2% (highest in three years), while renewed US-Iran strikes lifted oil and rattled equities, feeding higher inflation fears and risk-off sentiment. Egypt Energy Confidence: Egypt cleared $6.1bn in oil and gas arrears, cutting dues to zero and aiming to restart investment and production momentum. Cross-Border Payments Expansion: Indonesia’s central bank will expand QRIS cross-border payments to Saudi Arabia and India to support travel and tourism flows.

Geopolitics & Markets: Fresh US-Iran strikes near the Strait of Hormuz are back in focus, lifting oil prices and adding a geopolitical risk premium as investors weigh inflation and supply disruption fears. GCC Credit Watch: S&P says GCC issuer credit profiles remain resilient even as the Iran conflict stretches past 100 days, with limited negative actions so far and buffers supporting banks and sovereigns. Egypt Inflation: Egypt’s annual headline inflation eased to 13% in May, driven mainly by food and higher services costs, while monthly CPI rose 1.4%. Egypt FX/Reserves: Egypt reported foreign reserves hitting a record $53.1bn in May, while the Egyptian Exchange delayed CIB and TMG futures contracts to June 21. Egypt Housing/Real Estate: ElRaay Developments launched its River Park residential project in Obour City, targeting about $58m investment and phased delivery over two to four years. ADGM & Alternatives: Blue Owl Capital opened an ADGM office to build its Middle East institutional footprint. Financing Caution (Nigeria): The IMF warned Nigeria against a proposed $5bn First Abu Dhabi Bank borrowing via a Total Return Swap, calling it opaque and risky. Sukuk/Capital Markets: Arab Energy Fund priced a $500m 5-year sukuk with demand topping $900m. AI Mobility: HUMAIN and NVIDIA will bring a robotaxi-ready DRIVE Hyperion platform ecosystem to Saudi Arabia, backed by major compute infrastructure plans. Corporate Lending (MENA): Alinma Bank launched a Future Bankers Program with Kaplan Professional MENA in Riyadh.

Geopolitics & Markets: Global stocks jumped as investors leaned back into tech while oil eased after Iran and Israel signaled a pause, but the risk remains high after Trump said a US Apache was shot down near the Strait of Hormuz and vowed a response—keeping inflation and rates in focus. Sanctions & Compliance: The UK, Canada, France, Norway, Australia and others announced coordinated sanctions on people and networks accused of financing or enabling West Bank settler violence; France also banned Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich from entering the country. Palestinian Fiscal Pressure: Israel’s Knesset approved freezing Palestinian clearance revenues, a move that could worsen the Palestinian Authority’s cash crunch. Egypt Capital Markets: Egypt’s EGX will launch single-stock futures on CIB and Talaat Mostafa Group on June 18, adding hedging tools to the derivatives market. Trade & Infrastructure: AD Ports began commercial trial operations at Egypt’s Safaga 2 terminal (Safaga–Qena–Abu Tartour corridor), a $200m logistics push. Energy Transition: Turkey’s COP31 host push includes a proposed 35% electricity target by 2035, aiming to cut fossil reliance and protect households from volatile energy costs. Fintech/Payments: Telda and Mastercard launched Egypt’s Unified Financial Experience, linking everyday payments with investment access.

Geopolitics & Markets: Israel and Iran said they’re pausing direct strikes after Trump’s appeal, easing oil and bond jitters, but both warned retaliation could resume—keeping investors cautious as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shut. Energy & FX: Oil prices slipped as the pause held, while the dollar eased on hopes for de-escalation; the risk premium is still driving volatility across currencies and commodities. Sukuk & Capital Markets: The Arab Energy Fund mandated banks for fixed-income investor calls ahead of a potential $500m, five-year U.S.-dollar benchmark sukuk issuance (SOFR mid-swaps +80 bps guidance). Egypt Capital Markets: The Egyptian Exchange will launch futures contracts on CIB and TMG shares from June 18, aiming to deepen hedging and liquidity. Egypt Policy & Tax: Egypt’s Tax Authority clarified the departure fee won’t increase—LE100 remains unchanged, with past tourism-related reductions causing confusion. Egypt Infrastructure & Trade: AD Ports launched trial operations at Noatum Ports’ Safaga terminal under a 30-year concession, targeting logistics growth for Upper Egypt. UAE Private Markets Fintech: Mashreq partnered with Neovision and Red Lions Capital to enable private markets access via an ADGM-domiciled fund structure using a digital investment platform. Turkey Tax Tech: Turkey is preparing an AI-based “Awareness Platform” to score tax risks and let taxpayers fix issues before audits. Oman Investment: Duqm’s special economic zone secured RO 2.9bn ($7.5bn) in new investments, led by green hydrogen and ammonia expansion.

Geopolitics & Markets: Israel suspended Gaza aid deliveries after Iran’s missile attack, closing key crossings including Karm Abo Salem and Rafah, while Israel and Iran traded strikes again before both sides said they would pause hostilities after Trump urged an immediate stop to “shooting,” keeping the April ceasefire fragile. Energy Shock: Oil jumped as Middle East tensions reignited supply fears, while gold and silver slid as investors shifted toward rates and oil volatility. Crypto & Sanctions: The US Treasury sanctioned Iran’s Nobitex crypto exchange, alleging it helped IRGC-linked transactions and sanctions evasion—another sign digital assets are being used to route funds during the conflict. Iraq Housing Finance: Iraq’s PM urged private-sector support for a “one-million residential land plot” initiative, pushing companies to back provincial infrastructure and self-financing, especially in electricity. Saudi Privatization: Saudi Arabia launched EOI/RFQ for privatising five more football clubs, extending the Kingdom’s push to draw investors into sports assets. AI in Defense: A report says Israel expanded AI-controlled drones for intelligence and strike missions, reducing real-time human oversight.

Crypto Sanctions: The US Treasury sanctioned Iran’s Nobitex crypto exchange, alleging it helped the IRGC-Quds Force route transactions and evade sanctions, freezing assets under US jurisdiction and banning US persons from dealing. Middle East Markets: Gulf stocks slid as Iran-Israel strikes reignited wider conflict fears, with Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Qatar all down in early trading. Oil Shock: Oil jumped sharply on renewed Iran-Israel escalation, stoking inflation worries and pressuring risk sentiment across global markets. Frozen Assets Plan: The US is weighing letting Gulf allies tap frozen Iranian assets to cover war damages, adding a major new lever to regional finance and reconstruction talks. Ceasefire Strain: Israel and Iran traded attacks again for the first time since the April ceasefire, while Yemen’s Houthis warned of a Red Sea navigation ban—raising shipping and FX risks. Egypt FinTech/Banking: Egypt’s mortgage financing rose 42.9% YoY to EGP 7.3bn in the first two months of 2026, even as mortgage contract counts fell. Egypt Investment Push: Egypt’s investment ministry met HSBC to deepen partnerships, and expanded digital talent programs aimed at lifting offshoring services exports to $6bn in 2026.

Gulf Finance & Sanctions: The US is weighing a plan to let Gulf allies tap frozen Iranian assets to cover war damages, as Iran and the US trade strikes near the Strait of Hormuz and markets brace for fallout. Markets & Crypto: The latest missile-and-drone escalation triggered sharp crypto deleveraging, with reports of more than $700m in leveraged long liquidations as risk spiked. Iraq Payments: Iraq released overdue farmers’ dues after weeks of protests, with Finance Minister Falih al-Sari saying allocations will start flowing nationwide. Iraq Investment Push: Iraq’s new oil minister said he will improve terms for foreign firms and expand oil and gas development beyond traditional zones, aiming to cut flaring and boost capacity. Kurdistan Dealmaking: Iraq’s Delphi Forum wrapped phase one and is moving into a second round of bilateral meetings to spur investment across commercial, industrial, agriculture and tourism sectors. Banking Leadership: Libya’s Central Bank governor Naji Issa won the Arab Banking Union “Governor of the Year 2026” award for maintaining stability under pressure. Egypt Power Reform: Egypt’s electricity minister discussed with Nexus Analytica how to set up the regulatory framework for electricity market restructuring, targeting transparency, competition and investment.

Frozen-asset diplomacy: The US Treasury is assessing whether frozen Iranian assets can be redirected to help Gulf allies rebuild after damage from Iran-linked attacks, with Scott Bessent’s team weighing both reconstruction costs and potential compensation—an idea that could further strain the fragile US-Iran ceasefire. Sanctions & crypto enforcement: The US also moved to sanction Iran’s largest digital asset exchanges and leadership tied to IRGC financing and sanctions evasion, underscoring how crypto is being treated as a geopolitical tool in the Gulf. Gulf shipping & energy shock: With Strait of Hormuz disruptions continuing, OPEC+ is set to debate higher quotas, but analysts warn output pledges may not calm prices given real supply constraints. Islamic finance push: Turkey’s VP urged a stronger role for Islamic finance as Istanbul hosts Islamic economy events, while Turkey also secured a World Bank loan for “green and future cities” upgrades. Regional trade talks: Turkey and Bangladesh discussed an FTA/preferential deal and more Turkish investment, including textiles, renewables, IT and smart technologies. Iraq infrastructure: The World Bank backed a $900m Iraq road upgrade initiative to improve transport corridors and safety, aiming to unlock growth and private financing.

Iraq Budget & Health Staffing: Iraq’s PM Ali Al-Zaidi says the 2027 budget will include a clause to appoint contract resident doctors and raise their contract salaries, after delayed payments and renewed protests by resident doctors. Kurdistan–Baghdad Money Disputes: Erbil and Baghdad are set for renewed talks on financial disputes, including ASYCUDA customs rollout and a dollar embargo affecting KRG businessmen. Egypt–China FX Deal: Egypt and China expanded their local-currency swap to 30bn yuan (from 18bn), aiming to cut transaction costs and boost yuan/pound use in trade. Egypt FDI Spotlight: AfDB’s African Economic Outlook says Egypt is Africa’s top FDI destination, citing Ras El Hekma’s ~$35bn 2024 draw and rising Gulf capital. Egypt Risk Watch: AfDB warns Middle East tensions could shave 1.5–2.5 percentage points off Egypt growth via Suez, tourism, remittances and investment hits. Crypto Sanctions: US Treasury sanctioned Nobitex and others tied to Iran’s shadow banking and stablecoin flows, targeting a key digital-asset channel. Regional Trade/Logistics: Egypt launched Canal Trust Ship Services to run specialized vessels linking Red Sea ports to East Africa, bundling customs and inland logistics. Policy/Markets: Ireland banned Israeli ministers Smotrich and Ben-Gvir and signaled settlement-goods trade restrictions. Central Banking: India’s RBI held rates at 5.25% while adding measures to attract foreign capital and support the rupee. Qatar Banking Recognition: Union of Arab Banks named Qatar’s finance minister Ali bin Ahmed Al Kuwari a 2026 leadership award for advancing financial stability and cooperation.

Renewables Finance Deal: IRENA teamed up with Etihad Credit Insurance (ECI) to expand credit insurance and risk-mitigation for renewable projects via the ETAF platform, aiming to unlock more funding in the Middle East and GCC. Iran Banking Trust Shock: Iranian customers at major banks including Bank Melli and Bank Sepah reported unexplained losses from accounts, with officials citing cyberattacks while critics point to asset freezes and seizures. US Sanctions on Iran Fuel/Shadow Banking: OFAC sanctioned a network shipping Iranian LPG disguised as Omani gas, using UAE/China front firms and shadow banking links to move hundreds of millions. Energy Security in Focus: EBRD said it will keep scaling support for conflict-affected economies across Ukraine and the Middle East, including liquidity for businesses in Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon and the West Bank/Gaza. Iraq Power Backup Shift: With grid outages and Iran gas disruptions, more Iraqis are turning to home solar to cut reliance on costly generators. Market/Policy Signals: Indonesia’s central bank and finance ministry agreed to boost yields on Indonesian assets to attract portfolio inflows and support the rupiah. Tech & Compliance Hiring: Israeli startup Mine hired former Match Group privacy executive Ron De Jesus to lead privacy strategy and trust as it expands AI governance offerings.

Sanctions & Shadow Banking: The US Treasury sanctioned an Iranian-linked LPG smuggling and shadow banking network using UAE/China front firms, falsified shipping records and “shadow fleet” vessels, targeting entities tied to exports to Asia. Lebanon Aid Crunch: The UN more than doubled its Lebanon aid appeal to nearly $640m over six months as Israel’s war with Hezbollah drives mass displacement and civilian casualties. Iraq Infrastructure Push: The World Bank approved a $900m package to upgrade Iraq’s road corridors (Baghdad–Turkey and Baghdad–Syria/Jordan), aiming to boost trade, safety and jobs across Baghdad and the Kurdistan Region. Iran Deal Hurdles: Iran says it wants 50% of frozen assets released immediately (total $24bn) as a trust test before any US nuclear talks move forward. Energy Shock Watch: Oil prices eased on diplomatic hopes, but the IMF warned of a “domino effect” from oil dynamics—fuel costs rising and logistics disruptions hitting Hormuz-linked supply chains. Turkey Inflation/Policy: Turkey’s finance minister said price-stability steps continue as May inflation held at 32.61% y/y. Saudi Waqf Model: Saudi business leaders urged wider adoption of waqf endowments to mobilize long-term capital for development. Property Rules (Saudi): Saudi Arabia issued implementing requirements for non-resident foreign companies to own property without operating locally, via authenticated documents and digital identity.

India Debt Push: India’s government issued an ordinance exempting foreign institutional investors from capital gains tax (and interest tax) on investments in government securities, effective retroactively from April 1, 2026, aiming to pull in “patient” foreign capital amid US-Iran-driven volatility. RBI FX Measures: The RBI kept rates at 5.25% and rolled out steps to attract foreign inflows, including widening access for foreign portfolio investors to government bonds and offering discounted forex swaps to support external commercial borrowing and NRI deposit hedging. Crypto Risk-Off: Major altcoins slid sharply as Bitcoin weakened and Middle East tensions flared, with investors citing geopolitics and shifting expectations for US rate cuts. UAE Tokenisation Deal: Integra picked SettleMint to support compliant real-estate tokenisation across the UAE and US, targeting end-to-end issuance and lifecycle compliance. Egypt Energy Storage: Egypt signed battery storage agreements totaling 1,500 MWh in Zafarana and Benban, including local manufacturing plans to back grid stability and renewable integration. Egypt Card Payments: Credit Agricole Egypt launched an interest-free 12-month installment “Break” offer for eligible credit card purchases. Turkey Inflation: Turkey’s annual inflation edged up to 32.6% in May, keeping pressure on households and policy expectations. OECD Warning: The OECD said a prolonged Persian Gulf crisis could push global growth toward recession and lift inflation across G20 economies.

Sanctions & Crypto: The U.S. Treasury expanded Iran crypto pressure, designating Nobitex plus Bitpin, Ramzinex and Wallex, freezing U.S.-linked assets and warning foreign banks of secondary sanctions. Markets & Risk: Gulf equities closed mixed as Israel-Lebanon ceasefire hopes lifted sentiment, while investors stayed cautious on Strait of Hormuz and Iran developments; Wall Street also rallied on Iran peace-deal optimism. Iran Deal Sticking Point: Reports say the final hurdle in a U.S.-Iran agreement is how to release Iran’s frozen assets, with Trump reportedly opposing any payout before a formal signature. Egypt Capital Markets: Egypt plans to list more state-owned firms on the Cairo Exchange this year and shift from in-kind to cash subsidies under its IMF-backed reforms. Infrastructure Finance: Africa Finance Corporation raised a record $2bn syndicated loan to scale energy, transport and logistics investments across Africa. Corporate/Investing: PVH posted steady Q1 results despite Middle East disruption; Theon International approved a €0.31 dividend per share at its AGM. Policy/Compliance: Israel’s Supreme Court ruled the ICRC must be allowed to visit Palestinian prisoners, overturning a ban.