AGP Executive Report

Open Banking & Cash Management Wins: QNB Group picked up two ABF Wholesale Banking Awards for its Qatar open banking initiative and cash management leadership, highlighting API-based connectivity for transfers, bill payments and real-time account data. Saudi Sukuk Mandate: Saudi Real Estate Refinance Company (SRC) has mandated banks for a Reg S dual-tranche USD sukuk (5.5-year and 10-year), with investor meetings starting July 6 and government guarantee support. Crypto Regulation Shock: Binance paused crypto trading in France after MiCA licensing setbacks, leaving users able to withdraw but disabling spot and margin trading. Market Micro-Moves: OPEC+ agreed to raise August oil quotas by 188,000 bpd as Hormuz shipping normalizes; European shares edged up while oil slipped. Real Assets Platform Launch: Arada launched Arada Capital in ADGM to manage institutional-grade real estate funds, targeting $5bn AUM over four years. Cross-Border Payments/Fintech: Emirates NBD and Techstars partnered to accelerate enterprise AI and fintech solutions across MENAT. Geopolitics With Finance Spillovers: Indonesia and Singapore said the Malacca Strait will stay “accessible” as Iran’s shipping fees raise energy transit concerns.

Middle East Geopolitics & Markets: Iran’s weeklong Khamenei funeral processions are underway as Strait of Hormuz traffic rebounds and Opec+ lifts quotas, keeping oil and shipping sentiment in focus. Iran–US–Israel Tensions: Trump’s “one shot” rhetoric and Iran’s defiant funeral messaging continue to raise risk premiums, even as markets price a ceasefire. Saudi–Kenya Investment: Saudi Arabia and Kenya held the inaugural Political Consultations Committee meeting, signing MoUs on direct investment, customs cooperation, and export-finance links between Saudi Export-Import Bank and Kenya Development Corporation. Banking & Compliance: Kuwait authorities investigate missing KD902 from a man’s bank account shortly after his death, with withdrawals and responsibility under review. West Bank Tourism Push: Israel’s government approved ~NIS 27m for West Bank hotel development and grants to shift the area from day trips to overnight stays. Financing & Rates: Mortgage rates in the US eased to the lowest since May amid easing Iran tensions, while global money-market funds hit a record $7.95tn on inflows. Policy & Regulation: Iraq lawmakers are set to debate a controversial cybercrime bill with heavy penalties, including fines tied to undermining confidence in the financial system. Egypt Investment Pitch: Egypt briefed foreign embassies on energy and mining opportunities, positioning itself as a regional energy trading and transit hub.

EU–Egypt Macro-Finance: Egypt expects €1.5bn (about $1.72bn) from the EU within days as the first of two remaining tranches of a €5bn macro-financial package, with the rest due before autumn. Saudi Private-Sector Pulse: Riyad Bank’s PMI showed Saudi non-oil business activity hit a four-month high in June, led by stronger domestic demand and new orders, even as exports stayed weak. Türkiye Green Finance Push: Türkiye published its National Green Finance Strategy and Action Plan (2026-2029), setting 11 objectives and 45 actions to build a measurable green finance ecosystem and improve market resilience to climate risks. Pakistan–Türkiye Trade Reset: PM Shehbaz Sharif and President Erdoğan framed a “new chapter” for ties, targeting $5bn in bilateral trade while expanding investment, defence, energy, connectivity and tech cooperation. Israel–Iran Energy/Markets Backdrop: Oil prices were little changed as investors weighed improving prospects for US-Iran talks and Strait of Hormuz reopening, against ongoing security uncertainty. Crypto Fallout in the Region: Reports say nearly 1m buyers of Trump’s memecoin lost about $3.8bn by end-June, underscoring retail risk as crypto-linked hype spreads. Egypt Real Estate Digitisation: Egypt launched a digital property export platform pilot in New Alamein to let overseas buyers browse, pay and sign electronically, aiming to push real estate exports above $2bn in 2026. AI/Financing Outlook: A Jefferies note warns the AI investment cycle may end due to weak returns, not just spending cuts, as capital shifts toward North Asian chipmakers.

UAE e-Invoicing Push: Advintek secured UAE Federal Tax Authority Accredited Service Provider approval, positioning it to help businesses meet the Jan 2027 e-invoicing mandate under Peppol-based DCTCE and PINT-AE. AI in Banking: Commercial Bank (Qatar) won MEED’s “Best Use of AI in Financial Services,” highlighting AI use for customer experience and operational efficiency. Egypt Banking Regulation: The Central Bank of Egypt tightened rules on banks’ investments in corporate and securitization bonds, requiring board-approved limits, credit-rating thresholds (BBB), maturity caps, and stronger credit risk checks. Egypt Agriculture Finance: Egypt’s Agricultural Development Programme plans to double financing to EGP 10bn and expand local and foreign-currency lending via a 16-bank network to back agricultural investment and exports. Iraq Energy & Gas: Iraq aims to end routine gas flaring by 2030 while expanding renewables, including a 1,000MW Artawi solar project, to diversify energy and fund infrastructure. Iraq Ecotourism Drive: Kurdistan’s tourism authority is promoting environmentally friendly projects and easing entry procedures to boost visitor numbers. Pakistan-Türkiye Digital & Trade: PM Shehbaz Sharif and Erdoğan reaffirmed a $5bn trade target and discussed a Pakistan–Türkiye digital corridor, plus energy, mining, and special economic zones. Turkey Inflation Watch: Turkey’s annual inflation eased to 32.1% in June, though housing and education costs stayed high.

India–Israel Investment Boost: The Bilateral Investment Agreement (BIA) officially came into force on July 4, 2026, replacing the 1996 treaty and aiming to give investors fair treatment, stronger protection, and arbitration-based dispute resolution—expected to lift cross-border flows in tech, infrastructure, manufacturing, innovation and financial services. Pakistan–Türkiye Dealmaking: PM Shehbaz Sharif met Turkish business leaders in Istanbul and urged expanded Turkish investment in Pakistan across energy, mining, IT/telecoms, infrastructure, maritime/logistics, manufacturing, agriculture and privatisation, pointing to investor-friendly reforms and one-window facilitation via SIFC. Turkey as a Gulf Trade Gateway: DP World says freight is increasingly routing through Türkiye to reach Gulf markets as firms diversify supply chains amid geopolitical disruption, supported by port and transport investment. UAE Rail Diversification: Etihad Rail launched the UAE’s first national intercity passenger service between Abu Dhabi and Fujairah, with wider network expansion planned from Sept 30. Crypto Markets: Bitcoin is near $62,000 after a rebound, with traders citing macro and Middle East risk sentiment plus ETF flows. Geopolitics & Risk: West Bank reports cite escalating Israeli raids, arrests and settler actions, underscoring ongoing regional instability that can spill into trade and finance.

Iraq Fiscal Shift: Iraq wants non-oil revenues to hit ~45% of total public income within 10 years, using tax/customs upgrades, automated finance systems, wider tax base, private-sector activation and banking reform. Gulf Energy & Markets: European gas prices rose to a three-week high as storage replenishment stayed slow, even after US-Iran peace talks eased crude volatility. US-Iran Deal Watch: Negotiations in Doha continue under a 60-day framework, with a proposed $300bn reconstruction fund pitched to attract private capital—yet past pledge-to-cash gaps and sanctions risk remain major hurdles. Crypto & Security: Israel indicted an alleged Iranian-linked crypto “spy” recruit, highlighting low-dollar, Telegram-driven recruitment tactics. Startup Funding: Sanabil Accelerator (500 Global + PIF) wrapped Batch 11 with eight MENA tech startups, spanning AI, fintech, cybersecurity and insurtech. Cross-border Business: Pakistan and Türkiye agreed to deepen maritime and transport cooperation; Pakistan PM Shehbaz Sharif met Erdogan in Istanbul to push trade and investment. Payments & Regulation: ESMA expanded its crypto register by 37 firms after MiCA transition. Cybersecurity: UAE thwarted sophisticated cyberattacks targeting the financial sector. Africa VC: African startups raised $3.9bn in 2025 across 506 deals, with venture debt gaining traction.

Payments Modernisation: Oman Arab Bank marks a decade with BPC, highlighting card and payments upgrades including Visa tokenization for safer digital wallet and online transactions, plus faster self-service card issuance and broader scheme connectivity. Regional Mobility & Trade: Pakistan’s PM Shehbaz Sharif heads to Iran for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s funeral, then to Türkiye to push trade and investment ties. Cross-border Payments Integration: Türkiye submits a letter of intent to join SEPA, aiming to cut the cost and friction of euro cross-border transfers. Inflation Watch: Turkey’s annual inflation eases to 32.1% in June, but housing and education costs stay sharply elevated. Gulf Capital Flows: Saudi Arabia attracts $5.3bn from foreign investors into private markets in 2025, with SVC citing improved entry pathways and market infrastructure. Fintech/AI Ecosystem: Egypt’s BrainsMingle raises $400k seed funding for an AI-driven, video-first professional network. Defense Finance Push: Canada targets ~10 founding countries for a NATO-linked global Defense, Security and Resilience Bank, seeking up to £100bn in low-cost lending. Macro Risk Backdrop: UK services activity contracts again in June, with firms citing Middle East conflict-driven cost and demand uncertainty.

Pakistan-Iran-Türkiye Diplomacy: PM Shehbaz Sharif will visit Iran for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s funeral, then head to Istanbul for talks with Erdoğan on trade, investment and regional security. Israel Tech Cost Pressure: A study says Israeli software developers are now 8.2% pricier than US counterparts, driven by a strong shekel—raising fears of hiring slowdowns and more R&D moving abroad. Wealth Snapshot: UBS reports Israel ranked 18th globally for average personal wealth in 2025, with financial assets making up over 82% of gross wealth. Syria Sanctions Push: US lawmakers urge delisting Syria as a state sponsor of terrorism, arguing it blocks reconstruction and investment after the Assad regime’s fall. Iran Oil Sales Stress: With a 60-day US window for Iran-bound exports, Iranian crude is reportedly struggling to find buyers as Chinese demand stays muted, leaving tankers with unclear destinations. Pakistan-Iran Trade Relief: Pakistan grants a 60-day temporary export relaxation to Iran (July 2–Aug 30) to ease missing direct banking channels. Saudi Arbitration Update: Saudi Center for Commercial Arbitration publishes a country report highlighting high award enforcement rates and how Sharia/public policy grounds are applied in practice. UK Household Credit Strain: Bank of England data shows credit card and unsecured loan defaults at the highest since 2009, signaling rising consumer stress. GCC Banking Resilience Theme: Fitch flags GCC banks’ resilience amid US-Iran ceasefire uncertainty. Oil Market Backdrop: Oil prices swing as Strait of Hormuz reopening hopes and US-Iran talks affect supply expectations.

Digital Assets & Payments: Standard Chartered and Circle launched bank-led USDC minting and redemption for eligible institutional clients via DIFC, aiming to simplify onboarding and expand access beyond direct Circle accounts. Healthcare Finance & Infrastructure: Abu Dhabi Biobank and Bascom Palmer Eye Institute will establish the Middle East’s first eye bank in Abu Dhabi, boosting corneal transplant capacity across the UAE and region. SME Insurance Digitisation: Mashreq and Sukoon embedded SME insurance into MashreqBiz, letting businesses buy workmen’s compensation and third-party liability coverage digitally. Capital Markets: Bank of Cyprus won two EMEA Finance awards for its €300m Tier 2 bond issue, highlighting strong institutional demand. Regional Investment Flows: Saudi Venture Capital Company said foreign private-market inflows hit SR20bn in 2025, with international investors increasingly treating Saudi as a standalone destination. Oil, Liquidity & Sanctions Watch: Iran’s oil stockpile at sea is growing as buyers remain cautious ahead of the US 60-day window, while oil prices slid toward $70 as US-Iran indirect talks showed “positive progress” but no lasting peace. Iraq FX Controls: US reportedly resumed some dollar transfers to Iraq after earlier suspensions tied to pressure over Iran-backed militias. Middle East FinTech Angle: Franklin Templeton is expanding in Qatar via a QFC entity to deepen Doha’s asset-management role.

Saudi Energy & Storage: Saudi Arabia prequalified 27 firms for a second round of 12 GWh battery storage projects (3 GW/12 GWh total) under a Build-Own-Operate model, aiming to boost grid reliability and renewable integration. Saudi FinTech: Tabby secured consumer and SME finance licences in Saudi Arabia, signaling deeper expansion in local lending. Iran-US MoU & Frozen Assets: Indirect US-Iran technical talks in Doha wrapped up with progress on implementation steps, including a plan to use part of Iran’s frozen $6bn for humanitarian goods and a direct monitoring communication channel. Strait of Hormuz Focus: Talks centered on commercial shipping and incentives for Iran, while nuclear issues were deferred to later discussions. Iraq Anti-Corruption Drive: Iraq arrested 67 officials in Green Zone raids tied to corruption cases, with promises of continued action and public trials. Gulf Sovereign Wealth: Gulf sovereign funds logged a record first-half $53.9bn across 108 deals despite Iran-war volatility. Telecom Investment: Zain won a 25-year Syria mobile licence (20 years + extension), with plans to invest $800m over 10 years and roll out 5G and AI-enabled tech. UK Trade Pressure: The UK is weighing coordinated restrictions on goods from Israeli settlements in the West Bank, amid complex EU legal hurdles. Banking/Real Estate Lens: Bank Hapoalim CEO warned Israel’s next government faces the defense budget as a key driver of living standards, with business resilience noted during the war.

US-Iran Talks & Markets: Iran says it will not meet top US envoys in Doha and wants ceasefire terms settled first, keeping the Strait of Hormuz reopening and oil supply in focus; oil prices swung as investors weigh supply risk versus negotiation progress. Iraq’s Fintech/Infra Push: Region Trade Bank overhauled its board with international financial-integrity and sanctions experts as Iraq’s banking connectivity grows; Iraq also moved to market cross-border internet transit capacity via a Qatar deal, aiming to position itself as a regional data corridor. Crypto & Sanctions: Israel Katz announced sanctions on 37 IRGC-linked crypto wallets, while the US and GCC coordinated actions targeting Hezbollah’s financial infrastructure. Islamic Finance Deal: BlueFive Capital and Al Murjan completed a transaction to create BlueFiveSidra, building a global Sharia-compliant asset platform across the GCC and parts of Southeast Asia. Energy Transition in Saudi: Saudi Arabia qualified 27 firms for the next round of BESS projects, prequalifying six utility-scale storage projects totaling 3,000MW. Development Finance: The World Bank approved a $700m loan for Jordan to unlock private investment and jobs, including green and digital reforms. UNRWA Funding Pressure: Türkiye and Palestine’s envoy urged stronger political and financial support for UNRWA amid escalating political pressure and funding shortfalls.

Sanctions & Compliance: The US and GCC’s Terrorist Financing Targeting Center moved to designate Hezbollah’s financial institutions and senior officials, aiming to curb access to the international financial system. Iran-US Talks (Doha): Iran says it won’t meet US envoys in the coming days, even as technical talks continue under Qatar’s mediation, leaving the ceasefire and any nuclear limits unresolved. Iraq Anti-Corruption Crackdown: Iraq’s “Dawn Crackdown” continues with court-ordered damages in a lawmaker case, arrests tied to refinery corruption confessions, and recovery of about $12M in an airline probe. Iraq Labor & Refining Oversight: An MP flagged around 1,000 unpermitted foreign workers at Karbala’s refinery and questioned multimillion-dinar contracts, pushing for further integrity checks. Banking & Governance: Region Trade Bank appointed a new board of global financial-integrity and sanctions leaders to strengthen governance as Iraq modernises its financial sector. Digital Assets in the Region: Sygnum Europe expanded EU access under MiCAR/CASP licensing, while Petrofibre Arabia promoted fibre-optic monitoring for Saudi pipeline integrity—both pointing to fintech-adjacent infrastructure momentum. Egypt Macro Finance: The IMF cleared a path for a $1.6bn disbursement under its Egypt programme, as inflation and financing risks remain in focus.

Egypt Startup Funding: BrainsMingle, an Egypt-based AI video-first professional networking platform, raised a $400,000 seed from BasharSoft Group to expand its payments, booking and community features. Qatar-Türkiye Connectivity: Es’hailSat signed a strategic partnership with Türksat and a contract with Thales Alenia Space for Es’hail-3/Türksat-Biruni, a Ka-band high-throughput satellite aimed at boosting secure sovereign connectivity across MENA, Europe and Africa. Iraq Anti-Corruption Push: Iraq’s new PM Ali al-Zaidi is driving “Dawn Crackdown” style arrests and cash seizures, including reports of $15m found at a lawmaker’s home, as authorities target corruption across political lines. Banking & Capital Markets: QNB Group will sponsor APLMA’s 2026 conference in Singapore, focusing on the Asia–Middle East lending corridor and cross-border financing themes. Telecom Expansion: Zain Kuwait secured a 20-year licence to operate a mobile network in Syria via a 75/25 structure with Syria’s sovereign fund, taking over MTN Syria infrastructure. Saudi Real Estate IPO: Arabian Romoz plans a Nomu float of 11.95% (950,000 shares) for qualified investors. Digital Finance Growth: Tabby won SAMA approval for SME lending and higher-value financing. Regional Markets Mood: UK FTSE 100 edged higher for a sixth straight quarter as investors weighed Middle East ceasefire optimism.

Middle East Markets & Energy: Wall Street surged and oil steadied after the US and Iran stood down from weekend attacks, with investors watching whether Strait of Hormuz disruptions ease and whether Doha talks move the interim peace deal forward. Iraq Anti-Corruption & Finance: Iraq’s anti-graft drive escalated with major money-laundering convictions and asset seizures tied to the Oil Ministry, while the government set Sept 30 deadlines for pro-Iran armed groups to disarm—signals that could reshape risk and capital flows. Strait of Hormuz Watch: Analysts warned Iran is unlikely to relinquish strategic leverage even as shipping continues, keeping insurers, traders and FX markets on edge. Palestinian Territories: Gaza and the West Bank saw fresh strikes and raids despite ceasefire claims, while UN chief António Guterres condemned “relentless” settlement expansion and warned E1 plans could sever West Bank contiguity. Egypt FinTech/Finance Angle: Egypt’s Bibliotheca Alexandrina unveiled locally made archival paper from cotton waste—an innovation story that underscores supply-chain resilience and local manufacturing capacity.

Iraq Power Build-Out: Iraq plans to sign contracts for 25GW of new electricity generation capacity this year as it prepares its 2027 budget with programme-based spending. Iraq Anti-Corruption Push: Iraq says it will pursue “no immunity” for corrupt officials after arrests of 67 people, including lawmakers, tied to financial corruption and illicit trade. Iraq Banking Snapshot: Iraq’s bank deposits slipped to $66.8B in early 2026, while total credit also declined, according to Central Bank data. Saudi Cash/Gold Rules: Saudi ZATCA cut the traveller declaration threshold to SAR 40,000 for cash, gold and other valuables, requiring disclosure on arrival and departure. Gulf Sovereign Investing: Middle East sovereign investors are prioritising energy security and critical infrastructure as volatility rises. Trade Finance in Focus: Maalexi and RXIL Global expand access to trade finance for Indian agricultural exporters via a regulated platform. Banking Leadership: Bahrain’s Khaleeji Bank appoints Razi Almerbati as CEO from Aug 17. Market Mood: US and Iran ceasefire talks eased risk sentiment, lifting futures and helping oil cool after earlier spikes. Cybersecurity: ESET supported disruption of the Amadey botnet and Stealc infostealer in a coordinated global operation.

Iran–US escalation and sanctions patchwork: The US hit Iranian military targets after Tehran struck shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, throwing talks into doubt and leaving governments, banks and firms to navigate a fast-changing mix of permissions and restrictions. Strait of Hormuz risk to energy flows: Shipping firms warned of “new normal” operational chaos as routing directives conflict and crude export activity resumes, keeping oil-price volatility front and centre. Gulf finance and compliance pressure: The sanctions unwind is creating a “head-spinning” environment for risk teams and compliance-heavy lenders as waivers and scheduled removals roll out. Egypt privatization push: Egypt approved preliminary listings of four state-owned companies (including energy firms) ahead of share sales on the Egyptian Exchange, aiming to deepen private participation under its IMF-backed reform plan. Saudi workforce admin update: Saudi Arabia’s Qiwa set a June 30 deadline to regularize expired work permits, with automatic removal from employer records if permits stay expired for over three months. Egypt offshoring drive: Egypt is putting digital freelancers at the centre of its offshoring strategy, citing a large talent pipeline and growing global demand for cross-border services. AI finance risk warning: The BIS flagged vulnerabilities tied to AI-related financing, warning that compressed risk premia and leveraged funding could amplify a bust if returns disappoint. Iraq anti-corruption raids: Iraqi forces carried out major Green Zone raids targeting senior officials over alleged financial corruption, underscoring governance and enforcement themes that can spill into business confidence.