AGP Executive Report

FX & Sanctions Pressure: Iran’s rial slid to fresh lows as the central bank sold dollars (up to $2bn via state banks), with the dollar trading around 2.688m rials and officials blaming US sanctions and “false” collapse forecasts. Energy & Shipping Risk: Iran reiterated Hormuz won’t reopen until seven conditions are met, keeping shipping disruption and inflation risk front and center for regional markets. Iraq Oil Logistics: Iraq’s state tanker firm arranged a VLCC to move 2m barrels beyond Hormuz for the first time in decades, aiming to reduce discounts and reach refiners reluctant to sail through the strait. Turkey Funds Turmoil: Erdoğan said Türkiye has a roadmap to manage shocks after SPK-ordered liquidation of 131 funds, with interim payments approved for eligible investors. Egypt-Africa Finance Push: At the Alamein Africa Forum, Egypt’s Sisi urged integrated action and sovereignty in managing transboundary resources; Egypt also signed cooperation deals with South Africa, Equatorial Guinea and Chad. World Bank Jordan Update: The World Bank is nearing approval of an 18-month extension for Jordan’s Youth, Technology and Jobs Project, shifting funds toward training, wage incentives and digital services. Digital Finance & Compliance: CBUAE and Bank Al-Maghrib signed MoUs to strengthen supervisory cooperation, including Islamic finance.

Iran–US pressure & FX crisis: Iran’s rial hit fresh lows as the central bank and state banks inject up to $2bn to support the currency amid sanctions and a blockade; inflation is near 90% and households face sharp price hikes. Sanctions counter-moves: President Masoud Pezeshkian says Tehran has adopted a “new arrangement” to manage intensified US sanctions. Hormuz risk: IRGC navy reportedly targeted multiple oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz over five days, while Trump said the Iran endgame will be “easy way or hard way.” Alamein investment push (Africa): Egypt hosts the Alamein Africa Forum and AU meetings, with leaders urging more intra-African trade and investment; Ghana’s Mahama calls for healthcare as an investable sector. Banking/digital finance: Arab Bank won “Best Corporate Digital Bank in Bahrain” (2026) for digital corporate banking, trade finance and treasury services. Iraq–Turkey energy talks: Iraq and Türkiye advanced a draft deal for Iraqi oil exports via Ceyhan, including joint technical committees. Travel finance angle: Saudi Arabia eased visa rules for Guyanese passport holders (e-visa/visa on arrival without US/UK/Schengen visas).

Iran FX Moves: Iran has started selling foreign currency via four banks (Mellat, Tejarat, Saderat, Saman), letting adults buy up to $10,000, as the toman hits fresh lows. Africa Investment Push: Egypt’s Alamein Africa Forum opened with calls for more investment, trade and technology across Africa, with Afreximbank urging reform of global financial rules that “score” African institutions as weak. Local Capital Theme: African leaders at the forum backed greater use of homegrown finance to cut reliance on external funding, while Egypt highlighted that 85% of private-sector transactions involve non-African firms. Trade & Industry: AfCFTA’s automotive push shifts from rules to investment, production and jobs, linking vehicle assembly with tyres, batteries and other components. UAE-UK Finance Risk: Reports say the UAE could cancel major UK investments after Manchester City’s Premier League guilty verdict. Middle East Travel Retail: Oliver Wyman says Middle East travel retail is still leading on sales per passenger, despite geopolitical disruption. Diplomacy & Deals: T&T will open its first Middle East embassy in the UAE, after a reciprocal investment promotion agreement.

Turkey Capital Markets: Türkiye’s fund turmoil deepened as the Fund Coordination Board reviewed interim payment mechanics and draft Capital Markets Law changes after SPK approved interim payouts for investors in liquidating funds. Turkey Oversight: A separate analysis says audit findings for Turkey’s ministries and agencies plunged 82% from 2020 to 2025, fueling claims of weaker public-spending oversight. US Sanctions & Iran Trade: The US sanctioned İstanbul-based Troy Trading for shipping truck parts tied to Iran’s sanctioned auto supply chain, as Washington expands pressure on Iran’s industrial lifelines. GCC/IMF Macro Talks: UAE’s central bank governor joined GCC finance ministers and IMF meetings in Manama, focusing on fiscal-monetary alignment, macroprudential risk tools, and transparency. Egypt FX Boost: Egypt hit its strongest foreign reserve position in six years, driven by a surge in overseas remittances. Energy & Infrastructure: Scatec began construction of Egypt’s 900MW Shadwan wind project with $150m equity bridge loans, while Abu Dhabi wrapped up its smart city summit pushing AI and resilience. Crypto/Fintech Risk: US regulators moved against Russia-linked fintech A7, alleging sanctions-evasion support via a shadow banking network.

Sanctions & Compliance: The US Treasury expanded “Operation Economic Outcast,” hitting Iran’s auto and rail sectors and targeting the Russia-linked A7 network over alleged sanctions evasion, while also claiming Iran loaded zero crude onto tankers in September. Energy & Shipping Risk: Oil rose for a third day as the US weighs more military deployments to the Middle East; meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz saw reports of a tanker hit by a projectile and Iran’s authority said three Emirati tankers were on its non-compliance list. UAE Macro & Markets: The UAE Central Bank lifted its 2027 GDP growth forecast to 10.4% on oil and non-oil momentum, and Mubadala topped Mena sovereign wealth activity with $26.2bn deployed in 9M 2026. Lebanon Banking Oversight: The IMF will assess potential changes to Lebanon’s bank resolution law to keep it aligned with international standards as the country seeks an IMF deal. Ghana Fintech Banking: Ghana’s central bank is reviewing non-interest banking licence applications for two banks, signaling more competition in alternative banking models. Payments & Trade: DP World signed preliminary Nigeria port and special economic zone deals, while Kora’s CEO said stablecoins are increasingly used across Africa to cut payment delays and dollar access frictions. Gaza/West Bank: Fresh strikes and settler attacks pushed Gaza’s reported death toll higher, underscoring ongoing instability that can spill into regional finance and logistics.

Iran Sanctions & War-Finance: The US Treasury sanctioned 10 people and entities in Iran, Hong Kong and Pakistan for allegedly enabling Iran’s MODAFL weapons supply chain, including Pakistani businessman Wasim Pasha Tajammal and firms tied to him. Hezbollah Funding Snapshot: A new report estimates Hezbollah received about $157m of weaponry in 2024, mostly as in-kind support from Iran, with analysts framing it as a way to map financial pressure points. Markets Under Strain: Bond yields hit multi-decade highs as investors price higher inflation and policy uncertainty tied to the Iran shock, keeping European equities and banks under pressure. UAE–Nigeria Deal Talk: FAB is considering syndicating part of its exposure to Nigeria’s $5bn total-return swap, potentially selling down risk while staying the counterparty. Iraq Banking Access: Al-Taif Islamic Bank depositors can resume partial withdrawals under a percentage-based payout system after 18 months of guardianship. Israel–UK Intel Row: Israel says it warned the UK about an Iran-linked plot at RAF Fairford; UK arrests followed, with investigations ongoing. Airline Security Shock: A Flydubai cockpit stabbing and attempted crash en route to Tel Aviv was stopped by passengers; the incident is now driving renewed scrutiny of airline security. Saudi Digital Ops Push: HUMAIN and EY are building Saudi Arabia’s first AI-native BPO service, aiming to move beyond isolated automation into end-to-end enterprise delivery. Israel Startup Funding: Israeli tech raised $2.5bn in September, with AI and cybersecurity among the biggest rounds.

MENA Investment & Markets: A U.S. report says Morocco is positioning itself as a “gateway to Africa,” highlighting export-ready sectors like automotive, aerospace, textiles, energy, pharma outsourcing and agribusiness, alongside digital infrastructure and major transport upgrades. Oil & Geopolitics: Crude held above $90 as traders weigh Middle East supply recovery (including Saudi export resumption) against unresolved U.S.-Iran talks and Hormuz uncertainty. Saudi Tourism Tech Push: Saudi Arabia set TOURISE 2027 for March 23–25 in Riyadh, aiming to turn travel deals into action with a digital transformation and AI-driven distribution focus. UAE/Israel Security Spillover: Israel’s leaders said it will join the investigation into the flydubai cockpit attack attempt, while Herzog condemned West Bank “vigilantes” amid renewed violence. Banking & Credit Outlook: UK bank lending growth is forecast to slow to a three-year low in 2027 as Middle East-driven energy costs and uncertainty cool borrowing. Regional Finance Policy: Abu Dhabi hosted a MENA Leaders’ Summit on Financial Health, shifting regulators from counting accounts to measuring resilience, savings and responsible borrowing. Turkey Capital Markets: Turkey detained 34 more suspects in a widening capital market manipulation probe, now involving 217 people. Iran Sanctions Pressure: Iran faces sharp medicine price spikes and shortages as sanctions and banking frictions squeeze pharma supply chains.

Iran Sanctions Hit Households: Iran’s medicine prices have surged, with some treatments reportedly tripling as the US blockade and tighter sanctions strain the pharmaceutical supply chain, adding to broader cost-of-living pressure. Saudi Arabia AI Execution: Saudi Arabia’s AI push is shifting from building infrastructure to turning it into real operational capability across platforms, security, and governance. Capital Markets Mood in Saudi: Saudi Arabia’s IPO market is stuck at a weak pace, with only a few listings so far this year as valuation disagreements and investor caution persist amid regional uncertainty. Digital Banking Recognition: Arab Bank won “Best Corporate Digital Bank in Bahrain” for 2026, alongside trade finance and treasury/cash management awards, highlighting continued digital product traction. ADX Market Milestone: Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange was named the Arab Exchange with the highest market cap-to-GDP ratio for 2025, reinforcing ADX’s push for deeper liquidity and broader listings. Cross-Border Aviation Disruption: Turkey seized an Iranian airline Boeing at Istanbul over a €3m debt, following US secondary sanctions that have already tightened Iran’s aviation access. Trade & Investment Signals: Germany’s NRW and Türkiye’s DEIK backed stronger business ties, including faster visas for Turkish firms, while Qatar and Saudi Arabia reviewed progress on boosting trade and private-sector cooperation.

Qatar–Saudi Economic Ties: Qatar and Saudi Arabia reviewed ways to deepen trade and industrial cooperation, citing $1.98bn trade in 2025 (+36%) and 18% growth in Q1 2026, with 977 Saudi firms operating in Qatar. UAE–Egypt FX Liquidity: The UAE Central Bank and Egypt’s central bank agreed to renew a Dh5bn ($1.36bn) currency swap for five years to support trade, financial stability and more local-currency settlements. Mediation & Markets Risk (US–Iran): Qatar said it’s still exchanging messages to build common ground as the US rejects sanctions-relief reports; meanwhile, Iran’s rial hit fresh lows as pressure on oil flows and sanctions intensify. Iran Crypto Sanctions Pressure: A US Senate probe says Iran’s regime uses Tether (USDT) as a “financial lifeline,” with investigators pointing to USDT’s role in Iran’s shadow banking. Fintech/AI Investment (UAE): Mubadala teamed with US-based Together AI to explore AI infrastructure investment opportunities in Abu Dhabi. Banking/Infra Tech (Saudi): Nokia Deepfield Cloud Intelligence went live on Zain KSA’s network across 100+ cities to improve service assurance and proactive optimization. Regional Finance Watch (Jordan): Experts urged Jordan to channel rising remittances into investment and productive projects rather than mostly consumption. Shipping/Trade Disruption: Israel closed its review of Hapag-Lloyd’s Zim acquisition, though a revised proposal could restart the process.

Crypto & Sanctions: A US Senate report says 84% of Iran-linked crypto wallets it reviewed used Tether’s USDT, calling it a “financial lifeline” for Iran’s shadow banking and proxy funding, while Tether says it supports freezing nearly $550m in Iran-linked USDT. Capital Markets: Iraq Stock Exchange (ISX) went live on Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange’s Tabadul platform, expanding cross-exchange trading and local-currency settlement across connected markets. Fintech/AI Funding: Israel’s Reco, an AI agent security firm, raised $50m to expand sales and partnerships, bringing total funding to $135m. Banking/SME Credit: Abhi and NymCard partnered to streamline SME credit solutions for UAE financial institutions. Regional Finance & Energy: Iran warned that blocking its oil exports would endanger regional infrastructure, as the rial hit a record low amid war-driven economic strain. Markets: UK mortgage approvals fell to a 32-month low as Iran-war borrowing costs weigh on housing demand. Business & Investment: Saudi Arabia and AIIB discussed scaling financing beyond physical infrastructure into AI, MSMEs and skilling.

Private Wealth in the Gulf: A Hubbis Middle East Private Capital Forum panel said wealth managers must move beyond product access toward portfolio architecture, clearer risk, and more consistent AI-assisted decisioning—while family offices focus on governance that can survive generational change. AI & Advice Economics: Another panel argued AI can speed research, but advisers still own judgment, trust, and risk frameworks. Lebanon–US Finance Talks: US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent met Lebanon’s PM Nawaf Salam and Finance Minister Yassine Jaber, urging steps to disrupt Iranian/Hizballah financial networks and push banking reforms to restore confidence. Iran Sanctions & Crypto: Senate Democrats’ report claims Tether USDT is central to Iran’s sanctions evasion and “shadow banking,” with USDT used by sanctioned wallets. Markets on Iran Risk: US stocks slid as Trump rejected Iran’s Strait of Hormuz proposal; oil jumped and yields rose, keeping investors cautious. Iraq Investment & Industry: Iraq’s National Investment Commission discussed a Swiss-led plan for high-tech electrical equipment manufacturing and testing facilities. Qatar Climate Finance: Qatar’s finance minister at AIIB said climate funding must translate political commitments into investable projects aligned with commercial returns. Turkey Tourism Capacity: Turkey’s licensed accommodation bed capacity hit 1.94m, with Antalya holding about a third.

UAE E-commerce Growth: EZDubai Logistics Hub says the UAE e-commerce market hit Dh42.2bn in 2025 (up from Dh17.6bn in 2020) and expects it to reach Dh67.2bn by 2030, with MENASA expanding to Dh909.3bn by 2030 as digital payments and logistics investment accelerate. Stablecoin Payments in GCC/Africa: Tether backs Abu Dhabi fintech Shiga Digital to expand self-custodial USDT payments and treasury tools across Africa and the GCC using its Wallet Development Kit. Workforce Housing Deal (Saudi): Rela (licensed workforce accommodation platform) raises an undisclosed investment from Yazeed Al Rajhi & Brothers Holding to scale properties and corporate accommodation demand across Saudi Arabia. Fintech M&A (Israel-US): Valley National Bank signs to buy Israeli SMB fintech Bluevine for $340m (75% cash, 25% stock), adding Tel Aviv R&D and AI capabilities. Cybercrime Crackdown (Türkiye): Turkish police detain 473 suspects across 25 provinces over alleged fraud, phishing, illegal betting and banking account hacking, with courts ordering 286 jail terms. Oil Shock & Markets: Trump’s rejection of Iran’s Hormuz proposal lifts Brent above $108, pressures inflation expectations, and drags risk assets—Gulf bourses mostly retreat and India’s Sensex/Nifty slide on crude and geopolitical uncertainty.

Iran–US Strait of Hormuz: Trump rejected Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, keeping oil-supply risk elevated and pushing markets to price in firmer policy; the dollar edged higher while bond yields stayed under pressure. Banking & sanctions pressure: The US Treasury said it dispatched envoys to push countries to cut economic ties with Iran, with reports of flight curbs hitting airlines and banking links. Central bank watch: Bank of Korea reviewed global bond-yield spikes during Chuseok and said it will monitor volatility closely, as US long-end yields rose. Turkey fund crisis: Turkey’s Capital Markets Board ordered liquidation of funds after liquidity stress and redemption requests, roiling Borsa Istanbul and shaking investor confidence. Saudi capital markets: Saudi CMA opened a 30-day consultation on draft rules for conducting dealing activities in financial markets outside the kingdom. Iraq investment & regulation: Iraq signed licences for 60,000 residential plots in Karbala, recovered $13m frozen in French banks, and opened public consultation on an AI services regulatory framework. Azerbaijan deal momentum: Azerbaijan’s AIIF in Baku saw 26 investment contracts worth $10.8bn signed across sectors including AI, energy and manufacturing.

West Bank Access Tightened: Israel imposed a weeklong comprehensive closure on the occupied West Bank for Sukkot, sealing roads and entrances and tightening checkpoints, while the U.S. Embassy warned of checkpoint shutdowns from Sept 27–Oct 3 (medical/humanitarian exceptions only). West Bank Settlement Politics: Israel’s attorney general postponed the E1 settlement tender deadline by a month to fall after election day, aiming to reduce claims of election “propaganda.” Iran Pressure Hits Finance & Aviation: U.S. Treasury says its “Operation Economic Outcast” is working, citing restrictions on Iranian airlines and banking ties as Türkiye, Oman and the UAE halt or restrict Iranian carriers and transactions. Hormuz Deal Rebuffed: Trump rejected Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days, while Treasury chief Scott Bessent said economic pressure is delivering results. Egypt Startup & Skills Push: Orange will train ~200,000 Egyptians in AI and cybersecurity and invest EUR 25m in tech startups, with digital health cooperation discussed. Regional Compliance Agenda: UAE MENAFATF leadership plans a regional initiative to study fraud typologies and strengthen anti–money laundering cooperation. Crypto Market Jolt: Binance tagged Hyperliquid’s HYPE with a high-risk Seed Tag, triggering a price drop after the listing.

Digital Economy Benchmark: Bahrain ranks third in the Arab Digital Economy Index 2026, scoring 66.75 on digital sovereignty and highlighting fintech-friendly moves like cloud-first government and stronger e-commerce and AI strategy. Aviation Liberalisation: Syria issues Fly Dar Airlines its first Air Operator Certificate since Assad’s fall, a step aimed at restarting the sector and pulling in private investment. Sanctions & Payments Pressure: US Treasury says it’s pushed countries to economically isolate Iran, citing UAE central bank action blocking transactions tied to Bank Melli and flight suspensions by Turkey and Oman—raising knock-on risks for regional travel and cross-border finance. Trade & Energy Routes: Saudi FM warns at UNGA that threats to Gulf waterways endanger global trade and energy security, rejecting any fees or restrictions on civilian shipping through Hormuz and other chokepoints. Iraq Smart Cities Tech: Iraq launches its first smart waste collection system in Karbala using an underground network to move waste to transfer stations, backed by the National Investment Authority and Spanish partners. Egypt Investment Push: Egypt reports $15.5bn FDI in 2025 and reiterates “strategy to implementation” reforms to attract and scale projects across priority sectors. UN Blacklist Update: UN human rights office expands a blacklist of companies linked to West Bank settlements, now listing 214 firms across 11 countries.

Digital Payments & Compliance: Orange Money (Orange Jordan) teamed up with ADSTRA to deploy AI-powered AML/CFT screening, including sanctions-list checks and customer risk scoring, to strengthen fraud and financial-crime controls. AI & Digital Trade: The League of Arab States and AFDE pushed a new China-Arab digital cooperation phase at Hangzhou, focusing on AI, cross-border e-commerce, digital payments and smart-city partnerships. Energy & Markets: Iraq said 41% of its electricity supply is still purchased from investment projects and neighbors, while hydro output fell 50.8% amid water scarcity. Renewables Push: Türkiye reported renewables at 62.9% of installed capacity, with solar and wind driving growth toward COP31 targets. US-Iran / Hormuz Risk Premium: Iran renewed a proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if the US lifts its blockade, releases frozen assets and waives oil sanctions; Trump meanwhile posted “Trump Strait” branding. Azerbaijan Investment Drive: Azerbaijan signed $10bn+ in potential deals at its Baku forum, including Absheron gas field final investment decisions. Banking & Finance Watch: Dubai Financial Market liquidity topped AED 9.62bn last week as banking and real estate led trading.